Did Watson Really Win?

So, "Watson," the IBM mainframe with artificial intelligence won at Jeopardy against the two best human opponents. It also thought Toronto was a "US City" (the category) and got every question wrong on "Month," a five-in-twelve guess! IBM will surely tout it as a PR win, but it was a dreadful performance for 25 scientists, four years of hard work and a mega-million bucks. Watson should have answered every question right, and first. I have a sneaky suspicion that, given a learning curve, the two humans could have beaten Watson, but that would not have been good PR.

Why did Watson do so badly?

The engineer would say that you're always one transistor away from failure. The athlete that he's one injury away from a loss. The old that he's one sickness away from bankruptcy. Algorithm guys should say they are one human away from being human. Humans think conceptually, whereas machines exhaust logic trees by brute force. Deep Blue beat Kasparov but Eliza is awful. Machines are profoundly ignorant of what humans take for granted. There's a lot of stuff we know that we don't even know we know.

Watson did badly because our AI algorithms just aren't there yet.

Should we worry about our own idiocy instead? What about our own human thinking, which only works when void of emotion? Should we work on our mental health instead of developing artificial intelligence?

Further, Watson really did not play against two humans... rather, Watson and the two humans played Jeopardy, with little interaction. The devil is in the interaction. For instance, even if we hold out for perfection, it may be that perfection is holding out for perfection too... and not us. And we may not recognize perfection even if it whacked us in the head.

One final point: There's a lot of difference between losing and being a loser. The two Jeopardy humans are not losers, and neither should we call ourselves that. Imperfect works just fine, and it's human. Perfection is God's business. We should be proud of being human... accepting, embracing it and applauding it.

We don't yet have to worry about machines taking over the world... no Terminator scenario yet... but Watson did well for a four-year-old toddler.

- text © 2011 by Willy